What causes high tender rejection rates, and when to say no
When carriers turn down the contract loads they agreed to haul, freight capacity is tight, and the price of every load starts to move. In 2026 that has happened on flat freight volume.
Written by Gabriel Gonzalez
Tender rejections in numbers
A tender rejection rate is the share of contract loads that carriers turn down when a shipper offers them. High tender rejection rates come from contract rates sitting below the spot market, too few trucks, freight that strands a truck, short notice, and shippers that cost drivers time. In mid-October 2026 the national rate was about 14%.
Tender rejections are the earliest public sign that pricing power has moved to carriers. They show up in the data before spot rates do, and they decide which carriers a shipper calls first at the next bid.
I have spent more than 22 years at Simplex, nearly 16 of them as COO, and I read rejection data as a sales tool, not a market headline. This guide covers what the rate measures, what drives it up, what it means for your rates, and how to reject a tender without losing the lane.
The full briefing, read aloud
7 chapters. Select one to jump to it.
Generated with AI text-to-speech from this article's key insights, in order, rather than reading it word for word. Chapter times come from a transcript of the audio. The article itself was written and reviewed by Gabriel Gonzalez.
Key takeaways
Contracts bind price, not volume
A carrier can turn down a contract load. The load then goes to the next carrier in the shipper's routing guide, usually at a higher price.
Today's rejections are a supply story
Over three years, rejections rose 268% while truckload volume rose 9%, according to FreightWaves SONAR data.
Rejections lead spot rates
Contract loads are tendered days ahead and spot loads a day out, so a jump in rejections usually reaches spot rates later.
Every rejection is recorded
Shippers track each carrier's acceptance rate and use it at the next bid, so reject by plan, not by habit.
Your record keeps you in the guide
Since a May 2026 Supreme Court ruling, brokers have a legal reason to document why they chose you.
In this articleContents
What is a tender rejection rate?
It is the share of load tenders that contracted carriers decline. A shipper's annual bid produces a routing guide: for each lane, a ranked list of carriers and the rates they agreed to. Its system offers each load to the primary carrier first and, if that carrier says no, to the next one, until someone accepts.
Carriers can say no because freight contracts usually bind the rate, not the volume. Neither side can promise exactly how many trucks or loads a lane will need on a given day. When the market is soft, carriers accept almost everything. When it tightens, rejections climb, and the shipper pays more as the load falls down the list or out to the spot market.
| Point in time | Rejection rate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 through 2025 | About 4% to 6% | Soft market, carriers accepting most tenders |
| January 2026 | About 6% | The trough of this cycle |
| Around July 4, 2026 | Above 17.5% | The cycle peak so far |
| September 10, 2026 | 13.45% | Still well above prior years |
| Mid-October 2026 | 14.17% | An unusual rise with no jump in demand |
There is no fixed line between normal and tight. Brokers told FreightWaves in August that 8% used to feel tight and that 12% to 13% is where they now feel it. Read the trend in your own lanes, not one national number.
What causes high carrier rejection rates?
Most rejections come down to a better use for the truck, or no truck at all. In 2026 five causes stand out.
Contract rates below the market
Many contract rates were set when spot paid less than contract. In DAT's dry van data, that spread flipped in December 2025, after about 45 months with contract on top. When a load pays more on the open market than in the routing guide, some carriers will take the open-market load.
Too few trucks for the freight
This is the 2026 driver. Over the three years ending in October, FreightWaves' rejection index rose 268% while its volume index rose 9%. Fewer trucks are covering roughly the same freight, so more tenders go unanswered. Our guide to the trucking capacity shortage covers why those trucks left.
Freight that strands the truck
Carriers limit contract commitments in regions that ship little outbound freight, because a truck that delivers there may sit empty. When a harvest or a surge hits those regions, there is not enough capacity in place. On October 8, the Northwest posted a 20.27% rejection rate, triple a year earlier, with reefer rejections averaging 41% in October while van stayed under 5%.
Short notice and swinging volume
A lane that tenders five loads one week and fifteen the next is hard to plan trucks around. DAT names sales promotions and weekly volume swings as common reasons carriers turn down extra loads, because the added volume unbalances their network.
Shippers that cost the driver time
Detention, slower payment terms, and fuel surcharge changes all push a shipper down a carrier's list. Time matters most: a driver gets 11 hours of driving within a 14-hour window after 10 hours off, under 49 CFR 395.3. A load that cannot be run legally on the hours left should be rejected, and federal rules bar shippers, receivers, and brokers from coercing a driver to break them.
What do rising tender rejections mean for your rates?
Higher rates, usually within weeks. Contract loads are tendered days ahead and spot loads are booked a day or less out, so rejections show the squeeze first. In mid-October, FreightWaves reported tender lead times of 3.5 to 4 days and noted that its spot indexes had not yet caught up to the jump in rejections.
One reading is noise. DAT's rule of thumb is that rejections rising for two to three weeks straight mean the market is warming. Pair them with what you see on the load board: the dry van spot rate averaged $2.26 a mile in the week ending October 17, 2026, 34.5% above a year earlier. For each equipment type, see our truckload capacity forecast by trailer type.
Rejections also tell you where to be. On October 8, the Midwest, the largest freight region, ran 18.61% against 7.6% a year earlier, with tightness across van and reefer. Other regions sat between 7.6% and 13.1%. A truck that reloads in a tight region earns more than one that chases the national average.
Should you reject a contract tender?
Sometimes, but on purpose. There is usually no direct penalty, but shippers track each carrier's acceptance rate and use it at the next bid. DAT notes that incumbent carriers keep 60% to 80% of a shipper's loads from year to year, and a good tender record is how you stay one of them.
Step 1: Price every contract lane against today's market
List your contract lanes with the rate, the deadhead, and the reload. A lane below your cost per mile is a candidate to reprice, not just to reject. Our guide to freight rate negotiation shows how to set a walk-away rate.
Step 2: Ask for a rate review before you walk
Shippers run mini-bids on the lanes with the highest primary-carrier rejections. In August 2026, DAT reported that routing guides that held in March were breaking and mini-bid activity had spiked. A lane you are about to reject is your strongest argument for a new rate.
Step 3: Tell the shipper what you can cover
Commit only to trucks you will have. Tell the shipper early about the weeks or volumes you cannot take, so the rejection reads as planning, not reliability.
Step 4: Keep the next load lined up
Rejecting a contract load only pays if the truck has something better. Our freight planning team finds loads that match your trailer and lines up the reload near the delivery.
Why your safety record decides who gets the tender
Because the shipper and its broker have to justify who hauls the load. When shippers rank carriers at bid time, DAT notes they weigh safety records and insurance alongside price and service, and lanes with stricter requirements pay more.
The legal stakes for brokers rose this year. On May 14, 2026, a unanimous Supreme Court held in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II that federal law does not shield a broker from a state negligent-hiring claim over the carrier it selects. The Court did not find the broker negligent, but carrier vetting is now something a state court can review. Our post on the Supreme Court ruling on freight broker liability covers the case.
Brokers do not see your full CSA picture. Under the FAST Act, FMCSA's public site shows a property carrier's inspections, crashes, investigation results, and BASIC measures, but not percentiles or alerts. Our guide to how CSA scores affect your business walks through what they can see and how to check your own.
How Simplex helps carriers in a tight market
Rejecting the right loads works when you have the next one lined up, cash to wait for payment, and a record brokers can approve.
The next load, lined up
Our freight planning service assigns a dedicated dispatcher who negotiates loads that match your trailer type and checks customer credit before you haul.
A record brokers approve
Our compliance programs cover CSA monitoring, driver qualification files, hours of service, and mock audits.
Cash while you reprice
Through our partner OTR Solutions, freight factoring turns delivered invoices into working capital.
Frequently asked questions
What causes high carrier rejection rates on shipments?+
What is a good tender rejection rate?+
Is a carrier penalized for rejecting a load tender?+
What is a routing guide?+
Can a shipper or broker pressure my driver to take a load he can't legally run?+
Where this information comes from
The figures below come from federal regulations, FMCSA, the Supreme Court, and industry market data, checked on October 20, 2026.
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1
eCFR — 49 CFR 395.3, maximum driving time
The 11-hour driving limit within the 14-hour window after 10 hours off.
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2
eCFR — 49 CFR 390.6, coercion prohibited
Shippers, receivers, and brokers may not coerce a driver to break the safety rules.
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3
Supreme Court — Opinions of the Court, 2025 term
Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, No. 24-1238, decided May 14, 2026.
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4
FMCSA — Safety Measurement System
Which property-carrier safety data is public under the FAST Act.
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5
FreightWaves — Is trucking capacity coming back? (October 7, 2026)
Rejections up 268% against volume up 9%, and the 2023 to 2025 range.
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6
FreightWaves — Regional tender rejection rates (October 10, 2026)
Northwest and Midwest rejection rates by equipment type.
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7
DAT — How shippers analyze and segment carriers (May 31, 2022)
Contracts bind price, not volume; acceptance rates at the next bid; incumbents keep 60% to 80% of loads.
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8
DAT — Dry Van Report, October 19, 2026
Dry van spot rates for the week ending October 17, 2026.
Written by
Gabriel Gonzalez
Chief Revenue Officer, Simplex Group
Chief Revenue Officer at Simplex Group, with more than 22 years at the company, including nearly 16 years as Chief Operating Officer. His background combines revenue strategy with deep operational experience, giving him a strong perspective on how compliance, risk, permits, cash flow, and operational readiness affect a carrier's ability to grow profitably.
Published · Updated
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Reject on purpose, and stay first in the routing guide
High rejection rates hand carriers leverage, but shippers remember who covered their freight. The carriers who come out ahead reprice the lanes that no longer pay, keep the ones that do, and give shippers no safety reason to look elsewhere.
If you want help lining up loads, keeping your record clean, and steadying cash flow while you reprice, talk to our team.