Truckload capacity in 2026: van, reefer, and flatbed compared
Every equipment type is tighter than a year ago, but not by the same amount or for the same reasons. The trailer you run decides how much of this market you can use.
Written by Gabriel Gonzalez
Loads per truck, week ending Oct 10
Truckload capacity is tighter than a year ago in all three equipment types. In DAT's data for the week ending October 10, 2026, loads posted per truck were up 67% for dry van, 56% for reefer, and 35% for flatbed, with spot rates 29% to 35% above last year. Dry van, usually the steadiest board, moved most.
Most capacity headlines quote one national number. Carriers don't haul a national number. They haul a trailer type, and in the fall of 2026 van, reefer, and flatbed are tight for different reasons and on different clocks.
I have spent more than 22 years at Simplex, nearly 16 of them as COO, and the question I care most about is what the market means for the equipment already in your yard. This guide covers how to read capacity, where each segment stands, and what I would do with each.
The full briefing, read aloud
7 chapters. Select one to jump to it.
Generated with AI text-to-speech from this article's key insights, in order, rather than reading it word for word. Chapter times come from a transcript of the audio. The article itself was written and reviewed by Gabriel Gonzalez.
Key takeaways
Compare each segment with itself
DAT says flatbed ratios routinely run several times higher than van ratios, so read each board against its own year-ago level, not against the others.
Dry van tightened the most
The van ratio was 10.50 against 6.29 a year earlier, while ATA truck tonnage fell 1.6% year over year in August. That is fewer trucks, not more freight.
Reefer is priced by capacity
Reefer rates rose in the week ending October 10 even as load posts fell 20.7%, and DAT's reefer forecast band is the widest of the three.
Flatbed has demand, with soft spots
Data center construction supports open-deck freight, while U.S. farm tractor sales fell 16.4% in September and flatbed usually slows in winter.
Short-range forecasts are flat
DAT's 35-day forecasts put dry van at $2.23, reefer at $2.77, and flatbed at $2.59 a mile, all well above a year earlier.
In this articleContents
How do you measure truckload capacity?
Start with the load-to-truck ratio: the number of loads posted on DAT's load board divided by the number of trucks posted, for one equipment type or market. When it climbs, loads are outpacing trucks, and the ratio usually moves before rates do.
No single number tells the whole story, so read it alongside three others.
| Signal | What it measures | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Load-to-truck ratio | Spot loads posted for every truck posted | Its direction over several weeks, against the same segment a year ago |
| Truck posts vs. a year ago | Spot capacity looking for freight | A falling count means trucks left the market or found other work |
| Tender rejections | Contract loads carriers turn down | Two or three straight weeks of increases can mean the market is warming |
| ATA truck tonnage | Freight hauled, mostly under contract | Rates up while tonnage is down means capacity left, not that demand grew |
Why segments can't be compared by the raw number
Each equipment type has its own normal. DAT notes that van ratios move in the narrowest range, reefer ratios spike in produce regions at harvest, and flatbed ratios run highest and swing most. In DAT's words, comparing across equipment types tells you very little.
The ratio has limits too. It counts posted spot freight, not the contract freight that moves most truckloads, and many carriers never post their trucks. Read the movement, not the level, and check lane rates before you price a load.
Truckload capacity by equipment type: where each stands
All three boards are tighter than a year ago, and dry van has moved furthest from its own baseline. If you are new to how the freight itself differs, our guide to types of freight covers van, temperature-controlled, and open-deck loads.
| Equipment | Loads per truck (a year ago) | Spot rate (vs. a year ago) |
|---|---|---|
| Dry van | 10.50 (6.29) | $2.26 a mile (+35.1%) |
| Reefer | 16.75 (10.71) | $2.75 a mile (+32.7%) |
| Flatbed | 36.60 (27.16) | $2.65 a mile (+28.8%) |
Supply explains most of it. In the week ending September 25, trucks posted on DAT ran 26% below a year earlier for van, 20% for reefer, and 21% for flatbed. Why those trucks left, and how many will come back, is covered in our trucking capacity shortage guide.
Dry van: tight on supply alone
Dry van carries the broadest freight base, so its tightening says the most about trucks. ATA's tonnage index, which is mostly contract freight, fell 1.6% year over year in August. Yet in early October van spot rates ran 23% above DAT's nine-year average for the season.
The quarter-end rush pushed the van ratio to 13.72 in the week around the end of September before it eased to 10.50, still two-thirds above a year earlier.
Reefer: capacity sets the price
In the week ending October 10, reefer load posts fell 20.7% and rates still rose 2.1%, which DAT reads as capacity, not demand, setting the price. Produce shows the same split: in the USDA data DAT tracks, volume ran 4% below a year earlier, while Washington apple and pear lanes paid an average 72% more and California lanes 44% more.
Reefer is also the hardest of the three to call. Its 35-day forecast band is the widest DAT publishes, and in late August, around CVSA's Brake Safety Week, California produce districts went from adequate trucks to shortage in a single week.
Flatbed and open deck: real demand, uneven
Flatbed is the one segment with a clear demand engine. As a rough planning figure, DAT estimates about 100,000 truckloads per gigawatt of new data center capacity, from concrete and steel to transformers and generators. But in July only about a third of the 2026 pipeline was under active construction.
Other open-deck freight is softer. U.S. farm tractor sales fell 16.4% in September from a year earlier and combine sales 10.9%, according to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Housing is mixed: in August, single-family starts rose to a 918,000 annual rate while single-family permits slipped 1.8%, according to the Census Bureau.
Where is truckload capacity headed into 2027?
Tight, but leveling off. DAT's 35-day forecasts, published October 13, 2026, have all three segments holding near current rates and well above a year earlier:
- Dry van: $2.23 a mile, within a 70% confidence band of $2.16 to $2.30.
- Reefer: $2.77, with a band of $2.68 to $2.86, the widest of the three.
- Flatbed: $2.59, with a band of $2.52 to $2.65, the narrowest.
Beyond those five weeks, three forces shape the segments.
- Driver supply keeps shrinking, slowly. Under its non-domiciled CDL rule, effective March 16, 2026, FMCSA expects roughly 194,000 current holders to leave the freight market as their licenses come up for renewal, an exit it describes as five-year attrition.
- Seasons hit each segment differently. DAT notes that flatbed demand slows in winter across much of the country, while reefer ratios rise and fall with each region's harvest.
- Bid season resets the routing guides. The first quarter is traditionally slower for volume, and shippers add carriers and lanes to their routing guides after fourth-quarter bids, according to DAT. That is when contract freight changes hands.
What should you do with the equipment you run?
Make the trailer you have earn more. With all three segments 29% to 35% above last year, I would not buy a different trailer to chase this year's spread.
Dry van: win contract lanes in bid season
Van spot pays well, but tonnage is soft and most van freight moves under contract. Use the fall and first-quarter bids to win lanes with your on-time and tender-acceptance record, and keep part of the fleet on spot. Our freight rate negotiation guide covers pricing a lane against your cost per mile.
Reefer: price by origin and keep a cushion
Reefer has the widest forecast range, so hold more cash in reserve. Price produce by origin, not the national average: in mid-October, Washington tree fruit lanes averaged 72% above last year and South Texas crossings 41%. Check the ratio in your delivery market and line up the reload before you arrive.
Flatbed: follow the builds that have started
Position around projects that are breaking ground, not announcements, as DAT advises, and plan cash for the winter slowdown. Data center freight includes heavy-haul moves, so check the oversize load permit rules on your lanes before you quote.
Every segment: keep the truck loaded
Whatever you haul, a tight market pays the trucks that rarely run empty. Our freight planning team finds loads that match your trailer type and lines up the next one near the delivery point.
How Simplex helps carriers in a tight market
Loads that fit your trailer, faster pay, and a record brokers approve. We work on all three.
Loads for your equipment
Our freight planning service assigns a dedicated dispatcher who finds loads for your trailer type, negotiates the rate, and checks the customer before you haul.
Cash between loads
Through our partner OTR Solutions, non-recourse freight factoring pays delivered invoices by wire, ACH, or fuel card.
A record that wins freight
Our compliance programs keep driver files, hours of service, maintenance, and CSA scores in order.
Frequently asked questions
What is truckload capacity?+
What is a good load-to-truck ratio?+
Is open deck capacity tight right now?+
Is dry van or reefer capacity tighter?+
What does H2 2026 mean in freight forecasts?+
Where this information comes from
The figures below come from federal agencies, industry bodies, and DAT's weekly market data, checked on October 19, 2026.
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1
Federal Register — Non-domiciled CDL final rule
The March 16, 2026 effective date, FMCSA's estimate of 194,000 holders leaving the freight market, and five-year attrition.
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2
ATA — Truck Tonnage Index, August 2026
Tonnage down 1.6% year over year, and the note that the index is dominated by contract freight.
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3
U.S. Census Bureau — New Residential Construction
August 2026 single-family housing starts and permits.
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4
AEM — Tractor and combine sales, September 2026
U.S. farm tractor sales down 16.4% and combine sales down 10.9% year over year.
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5
DAT — What is the load-to-truck ratio?
How the ratio is calculated, how each equipment type behaves, and its limits.
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6
DAT — Dry Van Report, October 13, 2026
Van spot rate, load-to-truck ratio, and 35-day forecast for the week ending October 10.
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7
DAT — Reefer Report, October 13, 2026
Reefer spot rate, load and truck posts, load-to-truck ratio, and 35-day forecast.
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8
DAT — Flatbed Report, October 13, 2026
Flatbed spot rate, load-to-truck ratio, and 35-day forecast.
Written by
Gabriel Gonzalez
Chief Revenue Officer, Simplex Group
Chief Revenue Officer at Simplex Group, with more than 22 years at the company, including nearly 16 years as Chief Operating Officer. His background combines revenue strategy with deep operational experience, giving him a strong perspective on how compliance, risk, permits, cash flow, and operational readiness affect a carrier's ability to grow profitably.
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The national number is a headline. Your trailer type is your market
Van, reefer, and flatbed are all tighter than last year, but each for its own reasons and on its own season. The carriers who gain most read their own segment and lanes, price against their own costs, and keep their trucks loaded.
If you want help keeping your trucks loaded, paid, and compliant while capacity stays tight, talk to our team.