The 2026 trucking capacity shortage is about trucks, not freight
Rates climbed through 2026 while shippers moved about the same freight or less. The change is on the supply side, and part of it will not reverse quickly.
Written by Gabriel Gonzalez
The shortage in numbers
The 2026 trucking capacity shortage is a supply story. Freight volumes are flat to slightly down, but fewer trucks are competing for them after three years of carrier exits and tighter federal driver rules. That is why dry van spot rates in September 2026 still ran about a third above a year earlier.
For the first time since early 2022, carriers have pricing power. It did not come from a freight boom. It came from trucks leaving the market faster than freight did.
I have spent more than 22 years at Simplex, nearly 16 of them as COO, and a supply-driven market rewards a different kind of carrier than a demand-driven one. This guide covers what is removing capacity, which parts will last, and how to use the window without betting the business on it.
The full briefing, read aloud
7 chapters. Select one to jump to it.
Generated with AI text-to-speech from this article's key insights, in order, rather than reading it word for word. Chapter times come from a transcript of the audio. The article itself was written and reviewed by Gabriel Gonzalez.
Key takeaways
Supply, not demand, is driving rates
ATA truck tonnage fell 1.6% year over year in August, and U.S. Bank data showed Q2 shipments down 2.8% while shipper spending rose 28.1%.
Spot moved above contract
In DAT's dry van data, spot overtook contract in December 2025 after about 45 months below it.
Some exits are built to last
FMCSA expects roughly 194,000 non-domiciled CDL holders to leave the freight market over about five years as their licenses come up for renewal.
Some capacity comes back
Spot rates have eased from their early-July peak, and DAT reported truck capacity trickling back in early September.
Your record is now a sales tool
Brokers and shippers screen harder on authority age and safety, and a May 2026 Supreme Court ruling lets negligent-hiring claims against brokers proceed.
In this articleContents
Why is there a trucking capacity shortage in 2026?
Because trucks and drivers left the market faster than freight did. After more than three years of weak rates, fleets of every size exited, and stricter federal rules on who can drive made it harder for new capacity to replace them.
The demand data shows how little of the rate increase came from more freight.
| Indicator | Latest reading | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| ATA truck tonnage, August | −1.6% year over year; down 4.3% from March | Contract freight volume is soft |
| U.S. Bank shipments, Q2 | −2.8% year over year | Fewer loads moved |
| U.S. Bank shipper spending, Q2 | +28.1% year over year | Each load cost more |
| DAT dry van spot, mid-September | $2.17 a mile, +32.8% year over year | Rates held after the summer peak |
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello put it plainly in September: the truck market "has certainly flipped this year, but recent tonnage levels confirm this is due to reduced capacity, not robust demand."
Demand is not zero, though. In July, DAT cited analysis of ton-mile data showing the mix behind higher rates shifting from about 90% supply and 10% demand to roughly 70/30, with nearly all of the demand gain tied to building out AI computing infrastructure. Flatbed, closest to that construction, is the tightest segment: 40.47 loads per truck in mid-September, with rates 29.2% above a year earlier.
For the quarter-by-quarter numbers, including diesel, see our 2026 trucking industry forecast and market recap.
What is taking trucks off the road?
Two forces overlap: carriers that did not survive the downturn, and enforcement that limits who can replace them.
Three years of weak rates
The freight recession pushed out small, mid-sized, and large fleets alike. Payroll jobs in truck transportation, which leave out self-employed owner-operators, stood at about 1.47 million in August 2026 (preliminary), down roughly 32,000 from two years earlier, according to BLS.
Tighter rules on who can drive
- Non-domiciled CDLs. FMCSA's final rule, effective March 16, 2026, limits non-domiciled CDLs to drivers in H-2A, H-2B, or E-2 status. FMCSA estimates about 200,000 current holders and about 6,000 new credentials a year, and expects the remaining roughly 194,000 to exit the freight market as licenses come up for renewal.
- English proficiency. English-proficiency violations already put drivers out of service at roadside, and FMCSA proposed in August 2026 to codify that in its own rules. Our English proficiency guide for CDL drivers covers what inspectors check.
- Training schools. FMCSA's Training Provider Registry lists 9,963 training locations removed as of September 24, 2026, and every first-time Class A or B applicant must train with a provider on that registry. See our guide to entry-level driver training.
- ELD revocations. FMCSA has revoked 56 ELD listings so far in 2026, up from 37 in all of 2025, according to its revoked devices list. Each one forces carriers on that device to replace it.
Are today's freight capacity problems structural or temporary?
Both. The regulatory exits are slow and hard to reverse, but part of the capacity that left in the downturn comes back whenever rates stay high.
What is likely to last
- The non-domiciled rule works through license renewals, so FMCSA itself describes the exit as five-year attrition, not a one-time drop.
- A truck can be sold and put back to work. A qualified driver takes training from a registered provider, a license, and a clean record.
- Brokers and shippers now screen harder (next section), which slows how fast new authorities win freight.
What can reverse
- Rates have already cooled. DAT's dry van spot rate set a record for the July 4 week, then eased through August; in the week ending September 18 it averaged $2.17 a mile, still 32.8% above a year earlier.
- Capacity returns at the margin. In early September, DAT described truck capacity as trickling back, with van truck posts 17.2% below a year earlier instead of the 26% to 32% gaps of August.
- Part of the demand gain rests on one spending cycle, AI infrastructure. DAT's July analysis noted that the 2013 to 2014 freight cycle, built on fracking investment, was followed by a freight recession when that spending unwound.
How are brokers and shippers choosing carriers now?
More carefully. When trucks are scarce, shippers pay more, but they and their brokers also get pickier about who hauls the load.
- Spot moved above contract. In DAT's dry van data, contract ran above spot for about 45 months, from March 2022 through November 2025, before the spread flipped in December 2025. In early August 2026, spot averaged $2.32 a mile against $2.25 for contract.
- Authority age matters more. DAT reports that carriers with newer authorities can be shut out of some loads until they build a track record, and that some shippers tie spot access to contract performance, such as tender acceptance and on-time delivery.
- Carrier selection carries legal risk. On May 14, 2026, a unanimous Supreme Court held in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II that federal law does not preempt a state negligent-hiring claim against a broker accused of choosing an unsafe carrier. Our post on the Supreme Court ruling on freight broker liability covers the case.
For carriers, the practical result is that your safety data now works like a price list. A clean record, a solid service history, and complete driver files get you considered for loads a newer or messier competitor never sees.
What should carriers do while capacity is tight?
Use the higher rates to build margin and cash, not to stretch. Here is how I would run it.
Step 1: Know your cost per mile
Price every lane against your own fixed and variable cost per mile. That number lets you turn down a load that only looks good next to last year's rates.
Step 2: Put fuel into every rate
The U.S. average diesel price was $6.529 a gallon on September 21, 2026, $2.78 above a year earlier, according to EIA. Tie every contract's fuel surcharge to current prices, and quote spot loads with fuel built in.
Step 3: Protect your cash flow
Higher revenue does not help if you wait weeks to get paid. Freight factoring turns delivered invoices into working capital, and checking a customer's credit before you haul protects the receivable.
Step 4: Treat your safety record as a sales asset
Watch your CSA scores, keep driver qualification files complete, and fix bad data early. Our compliance programs include CSA monitoring and driver file management for exactly this reason.
Step 5: Watch the signals, not the headlines
Three numbers tell you whether the window is closing: trucks posted versus a year ago, ATA tonnage, and the spot-contract spread. If trucks come back faster than freight, rates will follow them down.
How Simplex helps carriers in a tight market
Staying qualified, getting paid, and finding the right loads are the three levers. We work on all three.
Compliance that wins loads
Our compliance programs cover CSA monitoring, driver qualification files, mock audits, and HOS management.
Cash flow while you grow
Through our partner OTR Solutions, non-recourse freight factoring turns delivered invoices into working capital.
Loads and credit checks
Our freight planning service assigns a dedicated dispatcher who negotiates loads and checks customer credit before you haul.
Frequently asked questions
Is there a trucking shortage in 2026?+
What is causing freight capacity problems?+
Are spot rates higher than contract rates?+
Will freight rates stay high?+
Can a broker be liable for the carrier it hires?+
Where this information comes from
The figures below come from federal agencies, the Supreme Court, and industry market data, checked on September 24, 2026.
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1
Federal Register — Non-domiciled CDL final rule
The March 16, 2026 effective date, eligible visa statuses, and FMCSA's 200,000 and 194,000 driver estimates.
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2
Supreme Court — Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II (PDF)
The May 14, 2026 unanimous ruling on negligent-hiring claims against brokers.
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3
FMCSA — Training Provider Registry
The count of training locations removed from the registry.
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4
BLS — Truck transportation employment
Seasonally adjusted payroll jobs in truck transportation.
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5
ATA — Truck Tonnage Index, August 2026
Tonnage down 1.6% year over year and Bob Costello's capacity comment.
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6
U.S. Bank — Freight Payment Index, Q2 2026
Q2 shipments down 2.8% and shipper spending up 28.1% year over year.
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7
DAT — Dry Van Report, September 21, 2026
Spot rates, truck and load posts, and the 35-day rate forecast.
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8
DAT — Dry Van Report, August 3, 2026
Spot vs. contract rates and the December 2025 flip.
Written by
Gabriel Gonzalez
Chief Revenue Officer, Simplex Group
Chief Revenue Officer at Simplex Group, with more than 22 years at the company, including nearly 16 years as Chief Operating Officer. His background combines revenue strategy with deep operational experience, giving him a strong perspective on how compliance, risk, permits, cash flow, and operational readiness affect a carrier's ability to grow profitably.
Published · Updated
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Tight capacity pays the carriers brokers can approve fast
Not every truck that left is coming back soon, but some will, and rates will follow the balance. The carriers who gain the most are the ones with clean records, solid cash flow, and costs they know to the cent.
If you want help keeping your compliance, cash flow, and loads in order while rates are up, talk to our team.