Trucking industry forecast 2026: what Q1 and Q2 actually delivered

Q1 2026 was the quarter the market turned on supply. Freight volumes barely moved, but what shippers paid to move them jumped.

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index put first-quarter shipments down 0.3% from Q4 2025 and up just 0.6% from a year earlier. Shipper spending rose 12.9% in the quarter, the largest sequential increase since late 2020, and 21.8% year over year. ATA chief economist Bob Costello called it "a market being reshaped by supply, not demand."

DAT's spot rates rose 11.9% from the fourth quarter, the steepest quarterly climb since the pandemic. The government's price data agrees: the BLS producer price index for long-distance truckload was 15.4% higher in March than a year earlier.

Diesel: the shock nobody forecast

U.S. on-highway diesel went from $3.48 a gallon on January 5 to $5.40 on March 30, about 55% in one quarter, after the Middle East conflict involving Iran disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The week of March 9 alone added 96 cents, the largest weekly increase in EIA's records, which go back to 1994.

Spot carriers took the hit first. Spot loads typically do not carry a fuel surcharge that adjusts on its own, and DAT found that in the first weeks of the spike carriers were recapturing less than half of the diesel increase in their linehaul rates. In DAT's March survey of more than 540 carriers, nearly 20% had already parked trucks.

Because trucks left, not because freight grew. ATA's tonnage index fell 1.6% year over year in August and sits 4.3% below its March peak. In ATA's words, the market "flipped this year," but "due to reduced capacity, not robust demand."

DAT's load board shows the same thing from the truck side: in mid-September, dry van equipment posts were 30.5% below a year earlier. Several years of weak rates pushed carriers out, and this year's enforcement is making it harder for new capacity to replace them.

• Non-domiciled CDLs. FMCSA's final rule took effect on March 16, 2026. FMCSA expects roughly 194,000 current holders to leave the freight market over five years as their licenses come up for renewal.
• Training schools. FMCSA's Training Provider Registry lists 9,963 removed locations as of September 24, 2026.
• Roadside enforcement. Since June 2025, failing the English proficiency requirement has been an out-of-service violation, which we cover in our English proficiency guide for drivers and carriers.

Brokers are also tightening who they book, especially after the Supreme Court's May ruling on freight broker liability. For the full picture of why this capacity is unlikely to come back quickly, see our trucking capacity shortage Q&A.

Protect the margin first, then grow. This is where I would focus.

Price diesel into every load

Tie contract fuel surcharges to EIA's weekly diesel index, and quote spot loads all-in at this week's price, not last month's. In March, DAT estimated that diesel had grown to 41% of an average long-haul dry van owner-operator's operating costs, up from 34%.

Recalculate your cost per mile

A lane that paid at $3.50 diesel may lose money at $6.50. Rebuild your cost per mile with current fuel, then drop or reprice the lanes that no longer cover it. Our guide to becoming a carrier that lasts walks through the math.

Protect your uptime and your record

At these rates, an out-of-service order costs more than it ever has, and DAT reports that brokers now weigh authority age and out-of-service rates when they choose carriers. Keep your files current with our DQF checklist, or let our compliance programs monitor your CSA scores and hours of service.

Use the leverage in contract talks

Shippers are repricing because their routing guides are failing. A carrier with clean scores and on-time service can ask for contract rates that reflect today's market, and lock in part of the fleet before the next swing.

Watch the cash gap

You pay for fuel today and get paid for the load weeks later. At $6 diesel, that gap grows with every load, so know how many weeks of fuel and payroll you can carry before a slow payer becomes a crisis.